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Trump Reality Check


Restorium2

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Is Trump's ability to bring jobs back to the US fact or fiction? I keep getting the feeling it's all smoke and mirrors.

So let's test it:

GM has a new vehicle in it's line up that will be built in China and imported to the US for our market.

It's the Buick Envision.

It stands out as the most obvious target for Trump to turn around.

If nothing is said, or nothing happens about it, then I'm thinking it's proof that Trump has no power with the automakers and is just spoofing us with fluff.

On the other hand, if Trump turns this around, I'm sold that he is working for us. 

Here's the vehicle;

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/01/11/2016-buick-envision-detroit-2016/#slide-endcap

Fiction. Smoke and mirrors. Ignore the man behind the curtain!

 

Does anyone here really want to pay 35% more for the things that are made overseas?

 

If manufacturers are forced to bring manufacturing back here, they won't be hiring many people. Instead they will invest in massive amounts of automation, i.e. Robotics, and not "workers".

 

It's all about supply and demand. Basic economics.

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Fiction. Smoke and mirrors. Ignore the man behind the curtain!

 

Does anyone here really want to pay 35% more for the things that are made overseas?

 

If manufacturers are forced to bring manufacturing back here, they won't be hiring many people. Instead they will invest in massive amounts of automation, i.e. Robotics, and not "workers".

 

It's all about supply and demand. Basic economics.

Robotics will be used whenever possible regardless. People have to work on the robots. Been there and done that. The Envision will be built the same way where ever it is built. 

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The jobs might not be the same. But keep it simple, a plant built in China to make cars that target US consumers is not good for us. They could build those cars in the US and we would have more jobs.

 

Yes, but at what cost? How can this happen when Auto industry costs, i.e. Wages and benefits will skyrocket? How much are you willing to pay extra for new car to put your buddies back to work?

 

I use to work in the auto industry too, albeit back in the 70s. Whenever there was a manufacturing "problem" my plant would just throw bodies (workers) at the problem. Rather than doing long-range planning to resolve these issue, they just added workers.

 

Remember the days of boom and bust cycles? I'd be laid off for weeks, get called back and work 10 hour days, 7 days a week. One time, this occurred for 10 straight weeks! This doesn't sound like an efficient way to run a business.

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When GM sets up a plant in another country they sent guys like me from a US plant to help set up the plant. I helped set up a plant in France. We set them up with the same manufacturing processes that we use here. There's no 'extra robots' option. 

 

Chinese labor costs have skyrocketed in the past few years. The biggest difference now are the EPA standards. And Trump already promised these standards to be lowered here now to promote business. 

 

The equation is not that lopsided. GM could build the Envision here. They say they are planning to build the 'other two' new platform vehicles here.

 

My point for this thread was to point out that Trump has no idea what he is doing. When he brags about jobs coming back here it is a 'set up'. Not real. I'm looking for a real 'cause and effect' in an area that I can easily tell if he's working or not. He had his chance to do something and didn't. So far, he's a fake. He's not doing what people voted him in to do. It's all BS so far. I'll keep watching with an open mind. But I'm not seeing him doing anything at all yet. 

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Fiction. Smoke and mirrors. Ignore the man behind the curtain!

 

Does anyone here really want to pay 35% more for the things that are made overseas?

 

If manufacturers are forced to bring manufacturing back here, they won't be hiring many people. Instead they will invest in massive amounts of automation, i.e. Robotics, and not "workers".

 

It's all about supply and demand. Basic economics.

 

True that. And the 35% tariff may be a bargain after they realize it cost 40% to 50% more to make and assemble everything here in the U.S. With wages, benefits and other costs figured in, it would end up costing more to manufacture products here. Does Trump think this 35% tariff won't be passed on to us, the consumer? What an idiot....he's going to put many companies out of business. Or end up having prices double so companies still make hundreds of millions of dollars while paying less and less taxes. These 4 years are going to seem to last forever. Hopefully he will be the end of the GOP and their old way policies.

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These 4 yrs are going to seem like they last forever if the media dont shut the f up,,and drump dont quit twitting lol!

 

I beleive the repub's thought the same thing as you during the primary's,,,they dont exactly back trump now do they?

 

After listening to trumps inaugaration speach he dont seem to be rep or dem, he slammed all politicians!  I didnt hear him say dem or reps messed up every thing, I heard him say that all politicians are getting rich and the middle class is disapearing!

 

I honestly beleive if he would have run as a dem he would have won also!  Not because he is the best person for the job, but people just wanted some one that wasnt a life time politician, me I wanted a life time politician, I wanted some one with experience in governing,  I voted to keep politicians in office not to bring in some one that is going to pp the world off!

 

Im seeing him at least act like he is working on his campaigne promises.......Even though most need congress to actualy complete his executive orders!   I dont think I ever seen a new prez do what he is doing now, obama didnt do anything his first 100 days accept win the nobile peace prize for being the first black U.S prez!

 

Trump could make the U.S alot better in 4yrs!  But I have a feeling if he does acomplish anything good for the u.s obama will get credit for it, just like bush got credit for all of obama's debts after he left office!

 

It was time for some one like trump to run for prez, he most def would have won the dem primary's also!

 

Every one needs to put their big boy pants on and let this guy do his job, he was elected, he won, I can prove it, google who is potus!

Go live in Russia then. If the media didn't keep everyone honest this might as well be Russia where the people get spoon fed their news, fake news.

Wake up and realize that the only real friend you have IS the media. 

Put your own big boy pants on and learn the value of a free media or go crawl back under a rock. 

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Wow man seems pretty harsh to bash someone like that for their opinion.

Right. These abrasive Trump supporters need to be treated nicely. Very nicely. We need to watch our tones around them. NOT lol Right after they tell folks to shut the f up and get our big boy pants on. Wouldn't want to be too harsh or impolite. 

I fight fire with fire. Not curl up and have a cry. You go ahead and try the mellow approach. I find it doesn't work.

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More years ago than I care to count I read Alvin Toffler's "Future Shock," and followed several years later with "The Third Wave." His analyses of potential changes in perspective and on the ground that we could then expect from technology could not have been more apt. He observed, pretty accurately I think, the service and technology economy that has come to replace manufacturing, the likes of which can be compared to the prior shift from an agrarian/craftsman economy to industrialism, before that from hunter/gatherer, and before that to climbing out of trees.

 

Any more, technical professions that offer good wages and benefits are the golden mean; medicine being possibly the most visible day to day for we who are aging. Newsweek reflected on that in its 1977 article, "The Graying of America." For the next several years medical personnel will be in demand while we boomers require increasing treatment. Many internships in those professions have a wait time of about two years. We cannot fill those jobs fast enough. Jobs in manufacturing require more training than they ever have. Learning intensive engineering skills and knowledge are required. MBAs will always be with us despite their empty souls. To expect that manufacturing jobs that offer full employment are a workable economic thing is a fool's errand. Those who eschew advanced education and/or skills training will continue to carp and whine about how unfair things are and elect knuckle dragging populists. Possibilities to compete the day after high school graduation are gone. Without education a center piece to this conversation it is little more than wheel spinning. Trump's nomination of DeVos as Ed. Secretary is intended to expand and keep his electorate dumbed down.

Edited by GregS
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GregS, excellent analysis!  As they say (been saying for years) the writing is on the wall.  We are in a global economy whether we like it or not.  Manufacturing jobs as we've known them are not coming back.  It's all about supply and demand, cutting costs and greedy stockholders.  It's all about education and training.  

 

I spent nearly 40 years in public education teaching Kdg - through college.  Public education shifted to a "college-based curriculum" sometime during the 90s.  Slowly but surely "voc-ed", "industrial-ed","tech-ed", went out the door.  Is it any surprise that we don't have an educated workforce to take on the high-tech manufacturing jobs of today?

 

"On Wednesday of last week, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were a record 5.9 million unfilled job openings in America as of the end of July. Sep 14, 2016"

 

 

 

5.9 million unfilled job openings!  Why are people complaining of not being able to find a job? 

 

"But on the other hand, it is also a symptom of a growing problem in the U.S. economy, where employers can't find skilled workers for the jobs that they need. That disparity is called the job skills gap, and it's a major challenge in right now." http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/08/news/economy/us-economy-job-openings-quits/

 

As a child of the 60s, it was expected that you would go to college if you wanted to amount to anything.  I did, flunked out, did the menial factory work, got my head together and went back to earn a Masters degree.  In my personal experience as a young college student, and in my teaching at the university level, I saw many, many students who did not belong in college.  I, and they, were there because it was "expected".  I and many others would have been much better off in a trade of some kind.

 

By the 90s as I said, skilled trade type curriculums in k-12 schools were all but gone.  Now, as a country we're paying for it.  5.9 million unfilled jobs  due to a lack of trained and skilled employees.  Go figure.  How in the hell is Trump going to fix this by "bringing back manufacturing jobs" when we can't fill 5.9 million  of them now?

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We will also be looking for signs of stimulation of education and training to see if Trump is creating American jobs to make us great again.

 

Here's an example of what to look for;

 

 

The issue is even getting attention from the White House. The Obama administration announced a $100 million initiative last December to improve the number of apprenticeship programs in the U.S.

 

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  Here's a baseline as to how things are going, handing off from Obama;         U.S. private sector adds 246,000 jobs in January, topping estimates: ADP

REUTERS - 8 MINUTES AGOTOP NEWS

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201702010824RTRSNEWSPHOTOS___KBN15G4J5_1

(Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 246,000 jobs in January, above economists' expectations, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 165,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 140,000 to 200,000.

Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised down to 151,000 from an originally reported 153,000 increase.

The report is jointly developed with Moody's Analytics.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department'smore comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Economists polled by Reuters are looking for U.S. private payroll employment to have grown by 169,000 jobs in January, up from 144,000 the month before. Total non-farm employment is expected to have climbed by 175,000.

The unemployment rate is forecast to stay steady at the 4.7 percent recorded a month earlier.

 

 

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GregS, excellent analysis!  As they say (been saying for years) the writing is on the wall.  We are in a global economy whether we like it or not.  Manufacturing jobs as we've known them are not coming back.  It's all about supply and demand, cutting costs and greedy stockholders.  It's all about education and training.  

 

I spent nearly 40 years in public education teaching Kdg - through college.  Public education shifted to a "college-based curriculum" sometime during the 90s.  Slowly but surely "voc-ed", "industrial-ed","tech-ed", went out the door.  Is it any surprise that we don't have an educated workforce to take on the high-tech manufacturing jobs of today?

 

"On Wednesday of last week, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that there were a record 5.9 million unfilled job openings in America as of the end of July. Sep 14, 2016"

 

 

 

5.9 million unfilled job openings!  Why are people complaining of not being able to find a job? 

 

"But on the other hand, it is also a symptom of a growing problem in the U.S. economy, where employers can't find skilled workers for the jobs that they need. That disparity is called the job skills gap, and it's a major challenge in right now." http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/08/news/economy/us-economy-job-openings-quits/

 

As a child of the 60s, it was expected that you would go to college if you wanted to amount to anything.  I did, flunked out, did the menial factory work, got my head together and went back to earn a Masters degree.  In my personal experience as a young college student, and in my teaching at the university level, I saw many, many students who did not belong in college.  I, and they, were there because it was "expected".  I and many others would have been much better off in a trade of some kind.

 

By the 90s as I said, skilled trade type curriculums in k-12 schools were all but gone.  Now, as a country we're paying for it.  5.9 million unfilled jobs  due to a lack of trained and skilled employees.  Go figure.  How in the hell is Trump going to fix this by "bringing back manufacturing jobs" when we can't fill 5.9 million  of them now?

I think that vocational trades have limits that render them inadequate for the task at hand. By all means. Fill them. Sure, there is demand for them, but is it enough that can we really expect to fill them to the degree that they will command a livable wage? A glut of them would depress wages. There are those niches that are immediate and not transferable beyond our borders, which makes them essential locally, but they are too limited in number to carry the economy. I am not at all confident that setting up trade barriers in order to prompt manufacturing in these United States is reasonable and expect they will almost assuredly fail. Econ 101 teaches the ins and outs of trade. We can thank the trumpkins that we are to be shown this the hard way.

 

If technical training can be expected to work, it won't be your dad's voc. ed. It must necessarily be more advanced and intensive in higher level reasoning and mathematics, which is the approach some other countries are necessarily taking and succeeding in, leaving us to twist in the breeze, and which is being shouted down by mouth breathing critics of progress. On that note, I see Common Core as a reliable way forward. Goods and services not yet imagined will have to be devised. I've thought this through to the n'th degree, and it always comes back to education, which is being given short shrift in Trump's White House: one of his base's demands.

Edited by GregS
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To each their own I guess. All I can say is that the world has not come crashing down since trumps win and I do not see it happening anytime soon.

All I can see negative are most all of Trump's cabinet picks. His judge pick is bad. And his ignorant travel ban is also negative. Other than that everything is fine. 

I'm looking for positive things and coming up empty.

Give a guy a little help. 

What ya got?

Edited by Restorium2
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Well I see cutting the epa, backing out of the tpp, the travel ban, the import tax, cutting taxs for everyone, hopefully he will audit the Fed. All good things in my book

 

And his stance on medical marijuana being left to the states is also a good thing

All just BS at this point.

Show me some positive RESULTS.

Something real, not fake. 

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Well, I prefer specifics. I see bumper sticker talk at this point.

 

Cutting EPA.  We can disagree on that issue in general,... but what EXACTLY is it you are glad is being cut?  What standards do you think are ok to remove? What specifically do you think was hampering business or whatnot?

 

The democrats had already killed the TPP before Trump did anything. Obama was pushing it, but the Democratic Congress had enough votes to stop it. Republicans were mostly all in for TPP.

 

The import tax is insane unless only against China IMO.  It makes no sense whatsoever anywhere else. But at least that is a point of view argument. I feel it will save almost zero jobs, bring back almost zero jobs, and all of us will pay more for everything.  Counterproductive in most places.  But with China, I am more than happy to stick it to Trump and all his businesses who profit heavily off of Chinese manufacturing. WalMart, Kmart, Lowes etc etc will get hosed hard.  That is ok by me.  That will actually boost American and United States jobs.

 

Cutting taxes for everyone? I haven't seen that one yet. I see Corporate Tax cuts and tax breaks for those making over $274,000/yr.  How does that help you or 'everyone'.

I suppose if they finally cut military spending by 50% to pay for those tax cuts, that would ok,... I guess(not really).  Otherwise it is just ballooning the debt so they have an excuse to cut Social Security, Medicare, infrastructure spending and school funding.  *shrug*

 

Audit the Fed. Hahahaha..... That's funny,.... and useless. It accomplishes nothing. It really doesn't despite what fringe people may say.

 

 

 

So, yea,... specifically how do those help?

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