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Whats The Fuss About Gorilla Glue? The Stuff Must Be Hi % Sativa? November Finish?


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I don't see it as 'selling out'. I just see it as a uninformed business move that will eventually put them at odds with the caregivers that have an advantage on him.  How is it that he's going to be able to compete with caregivers that have a super low overhead and don't have to be inspected, on camera 24 7? I just think that people are being sold a load of horseshit to get them to go commercial. Most folks that get filled in on it just back slowly away and realize being a caregiver is the best they will ever have it as far as grow rights.

This 1500 plant grow pyramid scam is just going to make a ton of work for the grower with not much of a return for your labors and investment. Learn to work really hard for your money because you will have to support a bunch of people above you who basically do nothing and collect from your work.  :thumbsd:

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As we all know, there is less money is commercial MEDICAL marihuana than people think. I think most of the speculation is in that they will get favourability in Personal use legalization.  The medical market in general is probably less than 10% of the overall market.  I suspect many businesses will fail.  I seen a statistic from Colorado before where well over 50% of dispensaries failed.  *shrug*

 

I mean, a single 1500 plant grow could supply the entire Upper Peninsula easily for commercial medical. Population 320,000. 

 

I don't think people are thinking properly on certain aspects. 

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Let me throw out a quick example.

 

About 2% of Michigan population are patients.  I am rounding for simplicity. About half of patients may use a dispensary once fully established. It is only about 20% right now. 

 

 So that means about 1% of Michigan population will use a dispensary at least occasionally.

 

So, Upper Peninsula that means at its height, 3200 patients will use a dispensary at least occasionally. I think that is a generous number as well.

 

But regardless,  a commercial 1500 plant grow should easily produce 300lbs a month. That means the average patient would need to purchase at retail cost about 1.6oz a month just to relieve a single grow facility of their supply. I don't many patients spending $4-500/month.

 

So,... One single facility can easily cover the entire UP.  And I believe my numbers are inflated in favour of the amount of business gracing retail.

 

Now, of course early on, most wont realize this and we will probably end up with at least 6000 plants of growers in the U.P.  All will only be able to sell maybe 20% of the grow potential. This means 75% will fail in th elong run on the "medical' front, OR will realize they never needed more tha a 500 plant grow because of competition.

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I think the deal is that people think about 1500 plants and all that marijuana. It has to make them rich, all that marijuana they can grow from 1500 plants.

But is it really your marijuana when you are tracked seed to sale on camera 24 7? I think it's the dispensary's marijuana all along and you are just their investor and employee at the same time. Their hardest worker. Doing all the dirty work for them and you don't even get to keep any for yourself. Just growing a pile of marijuana on camera and a huge public subject of interest for law enforcement. 

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Grower licenses will be too many and there will be (after the first year lets say) a ton of pot that will never be sold. People will overgrow the market, prices will drop at wholesale. Prices will remain at retail.

 

No long term benefit to patients really.

 

Most caregivers I know are cutting $150/oz to their patients nowadays. On the high side it is $200oz from caregivers.

 

It will be entertaining to watch.  Lots of long knives and failure to watch.

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Every single operation layered on top of the grower (provisioning center, lab, transport, processor) currently believes their profit margin will come from the grower lowering wholesale prices by lowering the grower's profit margin.

 

I.e., when you ask a dispensary proponent about increased prices to the patients for extra layers of regulation, they simply respond with "growers will be able to grow 500+ plants and that will make up for it."

Exactly the pile of horseshit I was referring to. The whole pyramid depends on a grower somehow snatching some marijuana out of the tracking system set up by law enforcement. Like that's going to happen with the monitoring equipment law enforcement has and will buy more of with the licensing fees. People need to understand this is law enforcement's law, they bought and paid for this. They will be your grow partner. If you take some marijuana for yourself to sell or smoke you are taking your partner's (law enforcement) marijuana. 

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I'm sure there's some brainchildren out there that think if they own the grow AND the dispensary they will definitely be able to deal some under the table. I'm sure law enforcement is going to be right on top of that kind of thinking. It's all going to be on camera with a bunch of faces with powdered sugar on them watching. 

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They are trying to allow stacked licensing.  A million bucks in lobbying being done for that one.

 

I am not sure it is legal under the law though.

I didn't even have that clue to go there. What's being thought up is obvious. So obvious law enforcement is even going to be able to follow it. And that's very obvious. When this business gets off the ground law enforcement will have all their duckies in a row. Seed to sale tracking on camera 24 7, grow and dispensary. It's quite the fun toy for law enforcement. I'm sure they got their drool on. 

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1. Caregiver to Patient is still there nothing has changed on that. (no clue on what that sellout means)

 

2. The new laws are for dispensaries. Since caregivers are not suppose to sell or donation their overages to these facilities.

 

3. To even get the new 500-1500 plant count license you already have to be rich. The application fee is around 2,000 dollars. The license will range around 7,000 to 15,000 dollars depending on what plant count you want. You need to have a certain amount of money in the bank and proof of where it came from. You need to be a caregiver for at least 2 years. You need to own a building in a city where ordinance would even let you grow. You need a business plan to show how to product is made and delivered to legal store fronts. BTW anyone who invest this kind of money will not risk their license to sell on the black market they would be a fool.

 

I personally would never qualify to get this license but i will be the head grower if plans fall through. So if you guys are worried about oh there will be commercial taking over everything i would think twice about it.

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Do any of those have a five-tier regulatory scheme and a multi-million dollar enforcement budget? Maybe they do, effectively, but the way the Legislature has structured this business does not seem intended to form an effective market, but to hamper it and add fees and expenses for dubious purposes. I do see a lot of various types of lawsuits in the future, as you have noted. Also, what are the chances the licensing board itself becomes a constraint on the licenses issued, for political reasons or otherwise?

 

Thus the source of my entertainment.

 

A bit macabre, but who doesn't like watching a shark fight?

 

As long as we can maintain personal growing,... does it really matter?

 

Heh.

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As long as we can maintain personal growing,... does it really matter?

 

That's my worry. When they discover that the millions aren't rolling in the way they expected will they blame it on caregiver/personal grows and then try to legislate to force the market to go to commercial interests?

 

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That's my worry. When they discover that the millions aren't rolling in the way they expected will they blame it on caregiver/personal grows and then try to legislate to force the market to go to commercial interests?

 

I think right now we are just starting to see the signs of the soft sell. The sharper commercial folks already know the score and are rolling out the soft sell propaganda; things for caregivers can't stay the same much longer.  When they are really thinking; Hurry up and quit so we can take over.

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