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Trump Reality Check


Restorium2

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Is Trump's ability to bring jobs back to the US fact or fiction? I keep getting the feeling it's all smoke and mirrors.

So let's test it:

GM has a new vehicle in it's line up that will be built in China and imported to the US for our market.

It's the Buick Envision.

It stands out as the most obvious target for Trump to turn around.

If nothing is said, or nothing happens about it, then I'm thinking it's proof that Trump has no power with the automakers and is just spoofing us with fluff.

On the other hand, if Trump turns this around, I'm sold that he is working for us. 

Here's the vehicle;

http://www.autoblog.com/2016/01/11/2016-buick-envision-detroit-2016/#slide-endcap

 

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Trump calls for more U.S. auto jobs, factories ahead of CEO meeting

BY DAVID SHEPARDSON, REUTERS - 6:32 AM ET 1/24/2017TOP NEWS

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201701240629RTRSNEWSPHOTOS___L1N1FE42N_1

WASHINGTON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday will push the chief executives of General Motors Co ( GM ) 

    retailLoader_lg.gifLoading...     , Ford Motor Co ( F )      retailLoader_lg.gifLoading...     and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV to increase production in the United States and boost American employment.

 

"I want new plants to be built here for cars sold here!" Trump said in a tweet ahead of the breakfast meeting with automakers, saying he would discuss U.S. jobs with the chief executives.

Trump has criticized automakers for building cars in Mexico and elsewhere and has threatened to impose 35 percent tariffs on imported vehicles.

The meeting is the latest sign of Trump's uncommon degree of intervention for a U.S. president into corporate affairs as he has repeatedly jawboned automakers and other manufacturers to "buy American and hire American."

It will be the first time the CEOs of the big three automakers meet jointly with a U.S. president since a July 2011session with then-president Barack Obama to tout a deal to nearly double fuel efficiency standards to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. Fiat Chrysler is the Italian-American parent of the former Michigan-based Chrysler.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer on Monday said Trump "looks forward to hearing their ideas about how we can work together to bring more jobs back to this industry."

U.S. and foreign automakers have been touting plans to boost American jobs and investments in the face of Trump's comments. The Republican president made attacks on Ford's Mexico investments a cornerstone of his campaign.

Automakers have praised Trump's policies, but emphasized that the recent employment moves were the result of business, not political decisions, that had mostly been in the works for a long period. (Reporting by David Shepardson; Additional reporting by Susan Heavey; Editing by Jeremy Gaunt)

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Are you saying he isnt doint what could help get jobs back to this country,  he said he wants to get the taxes down for the middle class and businesses to around 15 to 20%  and if company's build parts out of country they will be taxed at 35% or more, build in america and buy america, probably 75% of things I own say made in china!

 

Im going to be alot more diligent in not buying chinese goods!  I know I cant buy all american but maybe one day we all will be working in the u.s and buying u.s goods!

 

I agree with the 3 executive orders he signed on monday!

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Are you saying he isnt doint what could help get jobs back to this country,  he said he wants to get the taxes down for the middle class and businesses to around 15 to 20%  and if company's build parts out of country they will be taxed at 35% or more, build in america and buy america, probably 75% of things I own say made in china!

 

Im going to be alot more diligent in not buying chinese goods!  I know I cant buy all american but maybe one day we all will be working in the u.s and buying u.s goods!

 

I agree with the 3 executive orders he signed on monday!

Fluffy stuff. Just saying things. Not really providing any results.

That's why I put up a reality check. It's a fair test. Even the Trump 'yes men' should be able to understand that. 

If the Buick Envision is going to be built in China and sold in America then Trump isn't doing what he said he is doing. He's just stroking us with horseshit. That Buick should be built in Flint. Period. Not China. 

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Who thinks the wholly owned Corporate Congress will completely screew over corporations?  Including Trump himself?

 

Hahahaha....

 

He will attempt to take credit for things that have nothing to do with himself.

 

Numbers that matter..

 

Unemployment at 4.7%.

 

Currently 81 months of consecutive private sector job growth.  <--- a historical record.

 

 

Lets see what happens there...

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Right. We are being lead to believe he can sit down with executive auto makers and entice them to build our cars here.

 

This Envision is low hanging fruit. It's exactly what Trump has said is wrong with manufacturing. It's right in his wheel house.

 

It's a fair test to see what is actually going on and what is total BS. Cutting through the propaganda and looking for the meat and potatoes. Where's the BEEF Donald?

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Smoke and mirrors!    Trump and the big 3 are all PR savvy.   They will end the meeting and put out news releases about all their upcoming investment in US manufacturing.   Truth is the investment plans were made months ago w/o any consideration for Trump.   Trump will tout how his meeting produced $x of new capital investment and the big 3 will share a sigh of relief that he will now move on to picking on Lockheed Martin and the F35.  

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Tax cuts for corporations? That is likely to happen. :-)

 

A tax cut cutting tax for Social security funding? That's a possibility.  That is the "middle class tax break".  Cut money going to S.S. in the payroll tax. Cripple the program so they can cut it, raise retirement age etc....

 

 

Those are possible. :-)

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If Trump has any pull at all with GM then he will mention the Envision.

 

It would be a win for GM too. It would be a advertisement for GM every time Trump mentioned it.

 

It's a litmus test. Who is stronger, GM or Trump. 

 

This is one of those opportunities. It could be huge. Or it could point to how powerless Trump really is.

 

The R legislature doesn't like GM all that much, they would play along. 

Edited by Restorium2
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Smoke and mirrors!    Trump and the big 3 are all PR savvy.   They will end the meeting and put out news releases about all their upcoming investment in US manufacturing.   Truth is the investment plans were made months ago w/o any consideration for Trump.   Trump will tout how his meeting produced $x of new capital investment and the big 3 will share a sigh of relief that he will now move on to picking on Lockheed Martin and the F35.  

Exactly. If something happens with the Envision we will have to believe it's real. I've been watching this since 2014.

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We are being 'sold' today, yes this very day, that Trump can and will turn around things exactly like the new plant in China building cars that are targeting a niche American car market. GM hasn't hidden their plans. 

This is an 'up to the minute' test of the Emerging Presidential Broadcast System. BS or not, this is a test. Can we believe the hype?

Call me a fool for even testing it out. But I believe we have to give him a chance. 

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Trump talks to U.S. automakers, pushes for new American plants

BY DAVID SHEPARDSON AND ROBERTA RAMPTON, REUTERS - 16 MINUTES AGOTOP NEWS

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201701241349RTRSNEWSPHOTOS___KBN1581CA_1

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump urged the chief executives of the Big Three U.S. automakers on Tuesday to build more cars in the country, pressing his pledge to bring jobs to America and discourage the car industry from investing inMexico.

Trump, who has threatened to impose 35 percent tariffs on imported vehicles, opened a White Housemeeting with General Motors Co CEO Mary Barra, Ford Motor Co CEO Mark Fields and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV CEO Sergio Marchionne saying he wants to see more auto plants in the United States.

In return, the new Republican president has vowed to cut regulations and taxes to make it more attractive for businesses to operate in the United States. He promised frequently during his election campaign to be a job-creating president and stressed that message in his inaugural speech last Friday.

"We have a very big push on to have auto plants and other plants - many other plants," he told reporters at the start of the meeting. "It's happening. It’s happening big league."

The auto executives raised the issue of fuel efficiency rules, trade policy and other regulatory issues, a person briefed on the meeting said. Marchionne told reporters after the meeting that Trump did not give them specifics on what regulations he would cut.

The hour-long meeting was the latest sign of Trump's uncommon degree of intervention for a U.S. president into corporate affairs as he has repeatedly pressured automakers and other manufacturers to "buy American and hire American."

With flattening U.S. auto sales and some excess capacity, U.S. automakers have been reluctant to open new U.S. auto plants in recent years. GM and Ford last built new U.S. assembly plants in 2004, while Fiat Chrysler opened a new transmission plant in Indiana in 2014.

But they have expanded operations at existing U.S. plants to meet rising demand for trucks and SUVs. GM, Ford, Fiat Chrysler as well as foreign automakers have announced a string of new U.S. jobs and investments in recent weeks.

Coinciding with Tuesday's meeting, Toyota Motor Corp said it would add 400 jobs and invest $600 million in anIndiana plant, aiming to boost production of a popular SUV by 10 percent.

Ford's Fields said automakers wanted to work with Trump to create a "renaissance in American manufacturing", and said Trump's economic priorities were encouraging, including his move on Monday to formally bow out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact that was championed by his predecessor in the White House, Democrat Barack Obama.

"The mother of all trade barriers is currency manipulation. And TPP failed in meaningfully dealing with that, and we appreciate the president's courage to walk away from a bad trade deal," Fields told reporters after the meeting.

Barra said there was a "huge opportunity" to work together with the government to "improve the environment, improve safety and improve the jobs creation."

U.S. automakers have collectively added more than 78,000 jobs since 2009, the year when GM and Chrysler, now a unit of Fiat Chrysler, filed for bankruptcy as part of government bailouts during the U.S. recession. They have invested more than $40 billion in U.S. facilities during that period.

 

BUSINESS CASE

Despite the vocal pressure from Trump, the companies are unlikely to truly change their existing business plans for now, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting with AutoForecast Solutions.

"We need to have more concrete policies from the president," he said. "Automakers will make decisions on whether there is a solid business case,” said Fiorini. "Does it make more sense to build outside the U.S. or to build in the U.S.?"

GM said in 2014 it would invest $5 billion in Mexico through 2018, a move that would allow it to double its production capacity, and Barra has said the automaker is not reconsidering the plan.

While automakers are adding U.S. jobs, they are also cutting U.S. production of small cars. On Monday, GM ended two shifts of production of small cars in Ohio and Michigan, cutting about 2,000 jobs.

Tuesday's gathering was the first time the CEOs of the big three automakers have met jointly with a U.S. president since a 2011 session with Obama to tout a deal to nearly double fuel efficiency standards by 2025. Automakers have urged the Trump administration to rethink those aggressive fuel efficiency mandates.

Barclays auto analyst Brian Johnson said in a note Tuesday that he thinks "automakers will be willing to make a deal that would bring back jobs to the U.S. in return for a slower ramp of (fuel efficiency) targets and related state-level mandates."

Auto stocks rose on Tuesday morning. U.S.-listed shares of Fiat Chrysler rose 6.3 percent to $10.93, while Ford was up 1.6 percent and GM rose 1.3 percent.

Tuesday's meeting included the former Republican governor of Missouri, Matt Blunt, who heads a U.S. automaker trade association. Vice President Mike Pence, White House chief of staff Reince Priebus and other senior administration officials also attended the meeting.

 

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Additional reporting by Susan Heavey and Bernie Woodall Editing bySoyoung Kim and Frances Kerry)

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My take from the previous article;

 

Trump had nothing of substance to use as leverage, no specifics, no art of the deal. Fail.

 
Marchionne told reporters after the meeting that Trump did not give them specifics on what regulations he would cut.
 
 

Despite the vocal pressure from Trump, the companies are unlikely to truly change their existing business plans for now, said Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting with AutoForecast Solutions.

"We need to have more concrete policies from the president," he said. "Automakers will make decisions on whether there is a solid business case,” said Fiorini. "Does it make more sense to build outside the U.S. or to build in the U.S.?"

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If we truly want to bring back manufacturing jobs to the U.S. We have to focus on why they left in the first place. We bombed the shorts of the Japanese and Germans in WWII and then handed them our technology during reconstruction. Within a generation, by the 1970s, the Japanese and Germans started beating us at our own game,with quality and fuel efficient vehicles. Americans got too comfortable.

 

Why is it that the Japanese responded to the oil crisis in the 1970s with quality cars and the best we could do was offer the Ford Pinto? During WWII, we were able to quickly re-tool auto manufacturing plants to crank out planes and tanks. But we didn't respond to the oil crisis 30 years later with quality cars. Jimmy Carter nailed it with his "crisis of confidence" speech but that was 30 years ahead of its time and mostly just scared people.

 

In my line of work, I meet a lot of folks who own or operate manufacturing plants. What I've learned from them is that the Chinese and Mexicans crank-out low quality. Case in point- the Magna plant in Grand Blanc, MI. They make backup cameras. Their facility in Grand Blanc had a parts failure of about 1 in 1,000,000. Their facility in China had a failure rate of 1 in 1,000. Magna decided to close the plant in China and move production to Grand Blanc, resulting in 400 new jobs.

 

I'm not a jingoist. But the truth is, the Chinese make crap. Visit your local Harbor Freight tool store. I used to be a sucker for their low-priced tools, but quickly learned that most of their power tools are extremely low quality. I'd rather spend a bit more and buy a tool I can pass onto my son.

 

I still have a Milwaukee sawzall my dad used in the 1960s.

 

Chinese workers routinely fling themselves to their death out of factory windows. That's not a good business model. They don't care about quality. They are waay lower on Maslove's pyramid.

 

If the U.S. generally and Michigan specifically, wants to bring back manufacturing jobs, we need to focus on vocational education.

 

We need to depart from the notion that every young person needs a college education. We need to emphasize vocational education at the high school level to build a solid work force of carpenters, plumbers, electricians, and machinists.

 

If Trump is serious about bringing blue collar jobs back to the U.S., he will push for funding in the public education sector to teach our youth vocational skills. It all starts there.

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Tariffs, no NAFTA is a done deal

 

???

 

No TPP ya mean?

 

NAFTA has to be repealed by Congress. It would be the first time since 1866 the US has backed out of a trade deal.  *shrug*

 

Corporations want it.  Congress is owned by Corporations. NAFTA framework was created by a Republican think tank, The Heritage Foundation(they created the framework for Obamacare too actually) and I highly doubt the Republican corporate owned Congress will repeal it. They may try to change one thing if they can get all parties to agree, but just a straight repeal?  I doubt it highly.

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The net impact of repealing NAFTA would not lead to an increase in jobs. It is possible that, over the long term, some jobs that were lost will come back, if in addition to repealing NAFTA the federal government put high tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada. Repealing NAFTA does not by itself impose tariffs; it just eliminates a three-way agreement about what trade regulations, including tariffs, will be between the three member nations.

 

Here’s the thing about imposing a tariff, though; it usually results in retaliatory tariffs placed on your own goods. This is exactly what trade agreements were developed to avoid; the members of an agreement agree that neither side will impose new tariffs on imports from the other members. Once you take that away, you return to the days of trade wars and retaliatory tariffs.

 

So let’s say that Trump withdraws from NAFTA. And then let’s say he gets Congress to put high tariffs on goods imported from Mexico. If these tariffs are high enough, they might lead some manufacturers to return some jobs to the U.S. But for that to happen, the cost of the tariff would have to outweigh the difference in labor costs between the U.S. and Mexico. Corporations do not ultimately bear the costs of tariffs; consumers do, in the form of higher prices. So the idea is that, since prices of goods imported from Mexico would now be higher without NAFTA and with new tariffs in place, some companies might find it cheaper to make goods in the U.S. than they are currently making in Mexico. But that will only be the case, again, if the tariffs are high enough to balance out the difference in labor costs. In order for American-manufactured goods to be cheaper than those made in Mexico, the tariff on goods from Mexico would have to be pretty high, because Mexican workers make a lot less money than American workers do.

 

But here’s the thing: the U.S. still manufactures a lot of stuff, and a lot of that stuff is exported to other countries, including Mexico. If the U.S. puts high tariffs on goods from Mexico, then Mexico will put high tariffs on goods from the U.S.

 

So let’s take the automotive industry as an example. Most cars sold by the big three American automakers are still actually manufactured in the U.S. But many of the parts suppliers those car makers depend upon make their parts in Mexico. Right now, those car parts are cheaper to manufacture in Mexico, because labor costs are lower and NAFTA guarantees no significant tariffs between the U.S. and Mexico. So the parts are made in Mexico and imported by the U.S. auto industry, which they use to make cars here that they sell to American customers. But many cars sold in Mexico are also manufactured in the U.S. and exported to Mexico. So if the U.S. withdraws from NAFTA and puts high tariffs on goods from Mexico, and Mexico responds by putting high tariffs on goods from the U.S., those parts manufacturers would have to decide whether it would make more sense to move production back to the U.S. If they did, those parts will still be more expensive than they were before. Meanwhile, American manufacturers will see their sales to Mexico plummet.

 

So, the overall effect would be something like this: some manufacturing that is currently done in Mexico might come back to the U.S. But some manufacturing jobs that are currently in the U.S. would be lost as a result of declining American exports, leading to lower sales and reduced demand. In addition, making cars will become more expensive because the parts will be more expensive, leading to higher prices for American consumers, which will reduce demand (more expensive cars means more people will stick with the car they have rather than buy a new one) which will lead to more job losses in the U.S.

 

The reality is that the decline in manufacturing jobs in the U.S. over the last 40–50 years has many, many causes. NAFTA is only a small part of that. Automation is responsible for a lot of it; the greater global competitiveness (compared to the 1950s and 1960s, when American manufacturing was booming) of goods manufactured in other countries like Japan and Germany is another; reduced transportation costs making imports cheaper even in the absence of trade agreements are another; trade agreements are also part of the picture, but just a part.

 

NAFTA was ratified in 1993. The decline in American manufacturing began long before that, and dates back to at least the early 1970s. Part of this was inevitable; the rapid growth of American manufacturing in the 1940s, 1950s and 1960s was in part a product of World War II. During the war, American manufacturing grew explosively to meet the demands of war production; after the war, for decades the U.S. had a huge edge in manufacturing because most other industrialized nations had their factories and infrastructure heavily damaged or destroyed during the war. Rebuilding took time, and then those foreign companies, in places like Germany and Japan, were way behind American manufacturers who had seized a huge slice of the global marketshare for manufactured goods. This was a temporary, artificial situation that was never going to last forever, and as these foreign companies became more competitive with American manufacturers, they won back significant parts of the global market. American market share declined, leading to a decline in manufacturing jobs.

 

There’s a song by Billy Joel called Allentown. It was released in 1982, more than a decade before NAFTA. It was about the declining standard of living in Allentown, Pennsylvania, which used to be a center of both coal and steel production. Here are some of the lyrics. Remember, this was more than a decade before NAFTA:

Well we're living here in Allentown

And they're closing all the factories down

Out in Bethlehem they're killing time

Filling out forms

Standing in line

Well our fathers fought the Second World War

Spent their weekends on the Jersey Shore

Met our mothers in the USO

Asked them to dance

Danced with them slow

And we're living here in Allentown

But the restlessness was handed down

And it's getting very hard to stay

Well we're waiting here in Allentown

For the Pennsylvania we never found

For the promises our teachers gave

If we worked hard

If we behaved

So the graduations hang on the wall

But they never really helped us at all

No they never taught us what was real

Iron and coal

And chromium steel

And we're waiting here in Allentown

But they've taken all the coal from the ground

And the union people crawled away

Every child had a pretty good shot

To get at least as far as their old man got

But something happened on the way to that place

They threw an American flag in our face

Well I'm living here in Allentown

And it's hard to keep a good man down

But I won't be getting up today

And it's getting very hard to stay

And we're living here in Allentown

 

 

So the problems in American manufacturing date back to well before NAFTA, and repealing or withdrawing from NAFTA will not fix them. It will probably just shift jobs around; some will come back, but other jobs that are still here will be lost.

 

And stuff will get more expensive for everyone. (Inflation like I stated earlier)

 

The decline in American manufacturing is a complex problem with many causes, and complex problems do not have simple solutions.

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Trade: In 1993, before NAFTA took effect (which it did in January 1994), Mexico bought $41 billion in goods and services from the U.S. and sold $39 Billion worth to the United States. Total: $80 billion. In the first year of NAFTA, the $80 billion increased to $99 billion, a 25 percent increase.

 

Ten years after NAFTA started, total trade between the U.S. and Mexico was $145 billion — an increase of 55 percent. In 2003, almost twenty years after NAFTA began, total trade with Mexico was $506 billion — half a trillion dollars — which is 632 percent more than 1994.

 

In 2014, by contrast, the United States exported $123 billion in goods to China and imported $466 billion from China. That's a minus $343 billion imbalance in trade. In 2014, the U.S. exported $49 billion of goods to Germany and imported $123 billion for an imbalance of minus $73 billion (lots of Mercedes and BMWs).

 

Here is something that Mr. Trump apparently does not know: U.S.-Mexico trade is unique in the world; there is a "production sharing" program between Mexico and the United States in which, according to the Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, "A full 40 [percent] of the content of U.S. imports from Mexico is actually produced in the United States. ... This means that forty cents of every dollar spent on imports from Mexico comes back to the United States, a quantity ten times greater that the four cents returning for each dollar paid on Chinese imports."

 

This production sharing with Mexico is vital for the United States. For example, between 2009 and 2014, according to the Congressional Research Service, the U.S. imported a total of $341 billion in cars and car parts from Mexico, of which $136 billion was the 40 percent that Mexico bought from us to install in cars assembled in Mexico, then exported to the U.S.

 

In $341 billion dollars worth of goods imported from China, 4 percent would be $13 billion — compared to 10 times more from Mexico.

 

"Production sharing" means that the U.S. has an actual positive balance of trade with Mexico, rather than huge deficits as with China, Germany, United Kingdom, Japan etc. For example, in 2014, Mexico sold $290 billion to the U.S. Forty percent of $290 Billion is $116 billion which, when added to the $240 billion in goods and services we sold Mexico, totals at $356 billion, or a positive trade balance of $182 billion. Mr. Trump, do the math.

 

The Wilson Center also posits that "There are 6 million U.S. jobs that depend on trade with Mexico. Two border states that trade extensively with Mexico, California (692,000 jobs) and Texas (463,000 jobs) have the most…Detroit (alone) exports $10.9 BILLION in cars and car parts to Mexico (part of the total of $20 BILLION worth of cars and auto parts exported to Mexico)."

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Between 2001 and 2013 the Walmart-based trade deficit with China eliminated or displaced more than 400,000 U.S. jobs, according to a new paper from EPI Director of Trade and Manufacturing Research Robert E. Scott. In A Conservative Estimate of ‘The Wal-Mart Effect’ Scott calculates the employment effects of growing trade deficits attributable to Wal-Mart’s importing of Chinese goods, since China’s entry into the WTO in 2001.

 

“Wal-Mart’s reliance on cheap Chinese imports is an example of how powerful economic actors benefit from China’s unfair trading system. Wal-Mart’s gain, however, is not the country’s gain,” said Scott.

 

Key findings from the report include:

  • The Wal-Mart-based trade deficit with China alone eliminated or displaced over 400,000 U.S. jobs between 2001 and 2013.
  • Wal-Mart is responsible for a $36.7 billion increase in the U.S. trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2013—15.3 percent of the total growth in the U.S.-China trade deficit.
  • Chinese imports entering through Wal-Mart totaled at least $49.1 billion in 2013, up from $11.4 billion in 2001.
  • The manufacturing sector has been hardest hit by the growth of Wal-Mart’s imports. Wal-Mart’s increased trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2013 eliminated 314,500 manufacturing jobs.
  • On average, each of the 4,835 Wal-Mart stores in the United States was responsible for the loss of about 86 U.S. jobs due to the growth of Wal-Mart’s trade deficit with China between 2001 and 2013.

The growing trade deficit with China displaced 3.2 million U.S. jobs in the United States between 2001 and 2013, and it has been a prime contributor to the crisis in manufacturing employment over the past 15 years. The current unbalanced U.S.-China trade relationship is bad for both countries. As the world’s biggest retailer, Wal-Mart has played a major role in creating that imbalance. The U.S. relationship with China needs fundamental change, Scott argues. Addressing the exchange rate policies and labor standards issues in the Chinese economy should be important national priorities.

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