$20M Medical Marijuana Plant Proposed For Kingsley

[GregS]

I like things the way they are now. But I don't see the longevity in it.

Didn't think so.

[keyring86]

Didn't think so.

You didn't think what?

[Restorium2]

http://www.traverseticker.com/story/20m-medical-marijuana-plant-proposed-for-kingsley

 

I don't like all these big corporations coming in trying to take over our industry.

I don't like them either. The caregiver and patient grows are doing a fine job supplying patients with their needs and also making the State Of Michigan around $10, 000, 000. a year. We don't need these large grows and the communities have come out strongly against them. The lobbyists have paid the legislature to lie to us about medical marijuana when they say that small home grows are the wrong thing for our communities and we should substitute in these big grows. I say just the opposite, the small grows spread it around so that there are no dams in the supply that make it easier for criminals to take advantage of medical marijuana patients. What we have now is the most organic system we will ever have. It's a grass roots system that is run by the people for the people. It's a beautiful thing that we the people grew for ourselves and it's healthy and thriving. 

 

http://www.wnem.com/clip/13136301/city-holds-forum-on-potential-cannabis-industrial-park

[keyring86]

 

I don't like them either. The caregiver and patient grows are doing a fine job supplying patients with their needs and also making the State Of Michigan around $10, 000, 000. a year. We don't need these large grows and the communities have come out strongly against them. The lobbyists have paid the legislature to lie to us about medical marijuana when they say that small home grows are the wrong thing for our communities and we should substitute in these big grows. I say just the opposite, the small grows spread it around so that there are no dams in the supply that make it easier for criminals to take advantage of medical marijuana patients. What we have now is the most organic system we will ever have. It's a grass roots system that is run by the people for the people. It's a beautiful thing that we the people grew for ourselves and it's healthy and thriving.

 

http://www.wnem.com/clip/13136301/city-holds-forum-on-potential-cannabis-industrial-park

Yea their claim is that caregivers are growing bad weed. This'll make the weed safer.

[Restorium2]

Yea their claim is that caregivers are growing bad weed. This'll make the weed safer.

Bought and paid for total manufacture of false information to destroy the grass roots system we have grown in our communities. We already know about the terrible product they saw in Canada from these type of warehouse grows. There's no pride. There's nothing but a monopoly with patients herded to their commercial outlets.

[Restorium2]

Yea their claim is that caregivers are growing bad weed. This'll make the weed safer.

This false information is what they are counting on to make true what you said earlier in this thread about having to join them because you can't beat them. That's why you came up against the resistance you did here. You spewed out a few of their talking points. We recognize them and their falseness. We feel the need to respond to this propaganda because it's so much BS designed to really mess up us patients and our supply system. We don't need them, they need us, and we are not buying what they are selling. 

[Restorium2]

And on top of that you posted a quote from the stupidest hater cop you will ever meet; Caregivers can't sell weed. 

[GregS]

Yea their claim is that caregivers are growing bad weed. This'll make the weed safer.

I have seen no medical harm caused by marijuana. You?

[keyring86]

I have seen no medical harm caused by marijuana. You?

Lol no. But they need a selling point. That is it.

[keyring86]

And on top of that you posted a quote from the stupidest hater cop you will ever meet; Caregivers can't sell weed.

This is a common belief which is why I always hear people say they're taking donations.

[GregS]

It is given that the caregiver system will outcompete the state run production and dispensary operations hands down. What is the anticipated price of cannabis to the end user in this ploy?

[semicaregiver]

It is given that the caregiver system will outcompete the state run production and dispensary operations hands down. What is the anticipated price of cannabis to the end user in this ploy?

I personally have not seen estimates of the retail price that a patient may end up paying, but perhaps we could extrapolate.   What we are seeing are a lot of commercial news sites suggesting a wholesale grower sale price of $700/lb.  Add testing and transport cost at a guesstimate of $300/lb and the wholesale $ to the dispensary is $1,000/lb.    Add a 100% markup and we are up to $2,000/lb or $125/ounce retail.  Add 10% for various state sales and excise taxes and we are at $140/z out the door.   

 

Where does all this put the future of the caregiver system?   My guess would be you would need to deliver a premium product at no more than the dispensary price of $140/z or a basic product at $100/z or less.   My rational for the pricing is based on the ability of the dispensary to offer a patient a vast range of strains The caregiver could take up to six months to introduce a new strain and deliver it to the patient.  In addition, the dispensary system will offer a perceived testing and quality control system overseeing the growing and production of their products.   While we can argue how well the testing and quality control system might work, it will be sold as working and perceived as working by the vast majority of patients.  In conclusion, my prospective is one needs to evaluate their role as a caregiver given that at best they can receive $140/ounce for their efforts.

Edited March 5, 2017 by semicaregiver

[Highlander]

This is a common belief which is why I always hear people say they're taking donations.

I've posted about "donations" before. I think it's a silly way to describe a transaction, as if calling the transaction a "donation" makes any legal difference. It doesn't.

[keyring86]

I personally have not seen estimates of the retail price that a patient may end up paying, but perhaps we could extrapolate. What we are seeing are a lot of commercial news sites suggesting a wholesale grower sale price of $700/lb. Add testing and transport cost at a guesstimate of $300/lb and the wholesale $ to the dispensary is $1,000/lb. Add a 100% markup and we are up to $2,000/lb or $125/ounce retail. Add 10% for various state sales and excise taxes and we are at $140/z out the door.

 

Where does all this put the future of the caregiver system? My guess would be you would need to deliver a premium product at no more than the dispensary price of $140/z or a basic product at $100/z or less. My rational for the pricing is based on the ability of the dispensary to offer a patient a vast range of strains The caregiver could take up to six months to introduce a new strain and deliver it to the patient. In addition, the dispensary system will offer a perceived testing and quality control system overseeing the growing and production of their products. While we can argue how well the testing and quality control system might work, it will be sold as working and perceived as working by the vast majority of patients. In conclusion, my prospective is one needs to evaluate their role as a caregiver given that at best they can receive $140/ounce for their efforts.

If this is the case it wouldn't even be worth it

[keyring86]

I've posted about "donations" before. I think it's a silly way to describe a transaction, as if calling the transaction a "donation" makes any legal difference. It doesn't.

Yeah but just proves that lots of people believe it's illegal for caregivers to sell weed.

[Restorium2]

Low overhead means cheaper prices no matter how you slice it.

[Restorium2]

Yeah but just proves that lots of people believe it's illegal for caregivers to sell weed.

No one that reads this web site thinks that way because our readers are well informed. 

 

The way you put it sounds kinda sleazy though. We sell medical cannabis

[Jjamh]

I don't believe for a minute these places will go thru all of this to sell $140 ounces. I bet they'll stick closer to current dispensary rates, plus some. I hear that's closer to $300-$500 ounces & no doubt the meds will be mid grade at best & no doubt not organic.

[GregS]

I personally have not seen estimates of the retail price that a patient may end up paying, but perhaps we could extrapolate.   What we are seeing are a lot of commercial news sites suggesting a wholesale grower sale price of $700/lb.  Add testing and transport cost at a guesstimate of $300/lb and the wholesale $ to the dispensary is $1,000/lb.    Add a 100% markup and we are up to $2,000/lb or $125/ounce retail.  Add 10% for various state sales and excise taxes and we are at $140/z out the door.   

 

Where does all this put the future of the caregiver system?   My guess would be you would need to deliver a premium product at no more than the dispensary price of $140/z or a basic product at $100/z or less.   My rational for the pricing is based on the ability of the dispensary to offer a patient a vast range of strains The caregiver could take up to six months to introduce a new strain and deliver it to the patient.  In addition, the dispensary system will offer a perceived testing and quality control system overseeing the growing and production of their products.   While we can argue how well the testing and quality control system might work, it will be sold as working and perceived as working by the vast majority of patients.  In conclusion, my prospective is one needs to evaluate their role as a caregiver given that at best they can receive $140/ounce for their efforts.

Does it seem that those numbers are complete? They are not at all specific. The cost of plant, equipment, supplies, municipal and state fees and taxes, be they sales or otherwise, labor, and administrative cost seem to me that they are likely to make for higher prices. Then there are profits to be paid to investors. It is pretty well assured I am missing some things.

 

It seems apparent that the corporation that intends to operate this facility intends to accept little legal risk, leaving it to fall on the growers they intend to lease their facility to. I see the heavy regulation passed in the new laws intended by the legislature to make investing cost prohibitive. We have the opportunity to out produce these boondogles, providing quality product at low prices. It is apparent that public objection to these operations and dispensaries will cause them to be rolled out slowly, and in many municipalities not at all. I am aware that there are caregivers in the crowd.

[Restorium2]

I don't believe for a minute these places will go thru all of this to sell $140 ounces. I bet they'll stick closer to current dispensary rates, plus some. I hear that's closer to $300-$500 ounces & no doubt the meds will be mid grade at best & no doubt not organic.

Plus the quality thing. You already have to grow it yourself to have anything decent. Most dispensary cannabis isn't worth anything to me. Maybe all of it. 

So it's just a bonus to be a caregiver too. It's so sustainable we will always be chugging along. Teach a man to fish .....

[semicaregiver]

Does it seem that those numbers are complete? They are not at all specific. The cost of plant, equipment, supplies, municipal and state fees and taxes, be they sales or otherwise, labor, and administrative cost seem to me that they are likely to make for higher prices. Then there are profits to be paid to investors. It is pretty well assured I am missing some things....

 

Greg, the scenario I suggested above represents a classic retail business, the numbers are complete.   As a retail store, i.e. Dispensary, you buy a product ($1000/#) and then hopefully sell it at twice($2,000/#) what you paid for it.  The Difference between product cost and retail sale/revenue is your gross profit ($1,000/#).  Your rent, taxes (other than sales and excise), labor, energy, advertising, overhead, all costs come out of the gross profit.  With regards to the wholesale side, "the grower", he/she/it gets $700/lb for their product.  They pay for their labor, rent, equipment, supplies, utilities, taxes, fees, etc out of that $700 and whatever is leftover is their profit.

 

The only assumptions are the $700/lb and the cost of transport and testing.  The $300/lb guesstimate for testing and transport is hopefully an educated guess.   Testing currently seems to run $30/sample currently for a caregiver on an individual basis.  Given a commercial size operation I would guess testing costs should come down.  What should transport of a pound cost? $100?  Ok, 100 for testing, 100 to ship grower to lab, 100 lab to dispensary.   The $700/# wholesale figure comes from the seminars currently being held around the country for future industrial size growers.   Experienced industrial size growers are advising new startups to plan for sales at the $700/lb level.    Currently spot market prices you are currently seeing out of Colorado are currently running twice that, i.e. 1,200-1,400/lb, but they are projected to come down to $700 with a possible floor at $500 if greenhouse growing takes hold and interstate commerce is allowed.  

 

Understand, the above is not an immediate picture of the market come early 2018.  What I have laid out is a projection of what the market will evolve to in say 3 years of commercialization.  The point of this exercise was to respond to the question of what the financial future might hold for a caregiver.  If a caregiver is currently getting their patients to pay them $200/z, I think it is reasonable to consider that their revenue stream may drop drastically over the next 4 years.  

Edited March 5, 2017 by semicaregiver

[Dlo]

Yeah, no way they sell Oz for 140. Maybe if it's not very good. I'm thinking for top shelf quality, 250+. sure they advertise 140 but only for the bait and switch garbage. JMIO

[+Malamute]

I kinda laugh when people start throwing these numbers around.

 

Clueless.

 

Lets take a look at Colorado.

 

There is one outdoor grower who has been wholesaling after fall harvest for $1000/lb in Colorado. The pot is crappy. Low quality. Small popcorn buds. Sells for cheap, but hardly anyone buys it. It is sitting in shelves throughout the state. "Top shelf" is still wholesaling for around $2000/lb honestly.  Theres some average stuff going for around $1500/lb wholesale. 

 

There is an inherent value to top shelf , indoor, organic , properly trimmed marijuana.  There just is. It will never be $700/lb wholesale. It just wont be. Ever. Sorry.

 

Your numbers are really flawed.

 

How do you compete with large growers? 

 

Allow direct grower to retail for small businesses. Commercial grower licenses not allowed.

 

Craft Marijuana.

 

It works.

 

Nevada has a partial setup like this going.

 

They allow a dispensary owner a small grow. They no longer have to pay "wholesale" for anything and succeed or fail on their own merits.

 

"Whole sale" marijuana "Top shelf" still sells for around $45/eighth in Nevada at retail.  Dispensary self grown sells for about $25/eighth.

 

You can grow a million plants and still not compete for top shelf if the person can grow their own and sell direct to retail.

 

*shrug*

 

Let the smaller guys compete in this manner.

 

They have addressed a type of model in that vein in the MPP legalization model for Michigan.

 

"Ma and Pop" craft businesses that can actually compete with the big boys because it allows retail to not have to pay and turn around wholesale costs.

[+Malamute]

The issue is not allowing license stacking so that that grower can own 50 retail stores as well. This is why a divided layered system is important in such a model.

 

Grower---->Tester---->retail.

 

Grower/Retailer.

 

You cap plants for ma and pop at the minimum for wholesale marijuana growers. Think like 500 plants.

 

 On licensing permits disallow any crossover license stacking between retail, testing, transport and wholesale growing.

 

Now you have a marketplace that favours the little guy who will fail or succeed on their own merits and can never truly be undercut by "big marijuana".

[+Malamute]

I know some say... " But 500 plants and a dispensary isn't alittle guy".

 

Heh, its a brave new world my friends.

 

 

And this caregiver argument is nonsense. The average caregiver has 2 patients. Most often, a caregiver is merely a patient who wants to pay his bills by making a few extra bucks a month helping out another patient.

 

That wont change.  Retail at their very very best "my model" will never be able to do more than match a CG price.  On a good day. :-)

 

I have no fear for caregivers. They are typically family members and close friends. The few i see worried had big dollar signs in their eyes. *shrug*

 

 

Also, when every adult is allowed to grow,... who cares what retail is doing?