Michigan Senate Judiciary Takes Up Medical Marijuana

[trichcycler]

:notfair:patients' own money used against other patients and those who supply them, say it isn't so.....somebody thought that one out imo

[trichcycler]

Anyone who doesn't know that hasn't been paying attention.

you are so quick to accuse or lash out at the end of many otherwise good posts. interesting.

[Restorium2]

you are so quick to accuse or lash out at the end of many otherwise good posts. interesting.

You posted nonsense. I corrected it. No problem. What is interesting is how you can pretend to know so much but actually know so little. It's an interesting enigma that deserves some comment in my opinion. 

[cristinew]

I hope they can bring prices down ,  Competition is a wonderful thing,

[trichcycler]

I only asked if anybody else still believed it to be so. dispensaries are thriving and widely accepted. Caregivers and patients both frequent/support them. I find that interesting myself, like a hypocrisy maybe, I dunno. seems weird to support those who aim to oppress you. just my opinion of course.

pretend to know so much??? really? my posts are real, not pretend. if you already know the info, move along, if you don't, you have the opportunity to learn. don't ruin it for others man, that's downright selfish. don't be downright selfish. try posting less vile remarks, maybe add some useful information to the community once in awhile. You'd be surprised at how forgiving the bulk of us are. After tucking your ego away, open up a bit and we'll all hug again if you want. if not, well you know,

[Restorium2]

I hope they can bring prices down ,  Competition is a wonderful thing,

How many ounces do they need to sell, and for how much, to make up for the $10,000 on top of the usual grow costs with testing costs on top of that? Have you done the math? How much of a price decrease do you expect(after doing the math)?

[trichcycler]

I hope they can bring prices down ,  Competition is a wonderful thing,

 

keep in mind though(I don't know the prices in your area)  the good service, good product thing. For some patients $150z is too much here. If prices were 150 across the board, how many qualified growers would continue to supply their five patients ?  I could/would not for example.....but I hear ya!

[cristinew]

I bet you can make back the 10 grand in a few days  More dispensaries   more choice  leads to lowers prices  simple economics..  Choice is a wonderful thing,  grow your own  have  a caregiver or buy from a dispensary ,

[Restorium2]

I bet you can make back the 10 grand in a few days  More dispensaries   more choice  leads to lowers prices  simple economics..  Choice is a wonderful thing,  grow your own  have  a caregiver or buy from a dispensary ,

A lot of folks start businesses without doing the math. Most are failures. I think you have oversimplified the economics of the business to the point of underestimating the prices they will have to charge. For the new dealers to bring down prices they would have to be lower than what folks are paying now, lower prices with a higher overhead. I'm thinking that's probably not going to happen. 

[trichcycler]

I'm not interested in growing for the state, but I don't know about the 10k pay back either. I would like to see some cost analysis reports of a super producer of 500 plants before I understood any profit margins. growing 500 plants indoors is a very large venture requiring a huge investment in controls and equipment. Wholesaling to a dispensary under strict guidelines may not end up being as profitable as some believe. 

 

ON the other hand.....A monopoly in the game will aim to stop all of us from growing, maybe with price wars?  if they drop prices to 100 dollar an ounce, we will stop supplying people maybe, then, when we're all gone, the real prices will show their ugly faces. I look around and dont see good products getting much cheaper, only cheaper products getting more popular

[outsideinthecold]

Pretty hard to predict the future when one is disgussing any market including the cannabis market.

 

And make no mistake, what we are really talking about here is regulating a market in which we are participants.

 

Market prices are driven by supply-and-demand. Prohibition is simply market regulation taken to the extreme.

 

Most, if not all of the boys and girls in Lansing apparently haven't made that connection. One would think the free-market small-government Republicans would know better.

[Restorium2]

I think they get it. They are looking for a way more effective than prohibition to keep people from growing, selling, and using marijuana.

Disguised as helping the very people they are trying to repress, funded by the repressed. A self sustaining circle of repression. 

[bobandtorey]

I bet you can make back the 10 grand in a few days  More dispensaries   more choice  leads to lowers prices  simple economics..  Choice is a wonderful thing,  grow your own  have  a caregiver or buy from a dispensary ,

Sorry to ask but do you still feel like growing your own cannabis has no risk ?

[semicaregiver]

How about a 20% excise tax, a 6% sales tax and an out the door price of $250/ounce when you buy your mmj by the  1/8 ounce???   Seems to be very close to the prices currently advertised in the Metro Times right now.

 

Seems one could do the math. on what the end price might be.   Marijuana Business Daily reports the wholesale price to hover just under $4/gram.   They also report that the average buy is 1/8th and the avg user spends $1.800/yr.   Using the $1,800 number might be more realistic than working with grams or ounces.  For example, people only have so many expendable $ and that is all they can afford.  

 

A second thought.  While most of us might think in terms of the price per ounce, a estimate of the market should best be compared to the 1/8 market price.  

 

Also the big unaccounted for # is the 21.1 million (Michigan House Fiscal Agency Analysis of 4209) annual cost to run the enforcement operation that is included in 4209.   My estimate is they will need to raise the excise tax to around 20% to cover the bill.  

 

For example, let's say that 70,000 of the patients (a number in the 50% range) go to dispensaries and they spend their $1,800.  That is $126 million dollars.   Working that backwards we get about 26 million for the state when the 6% sales tax is included.     

 

This leaves $100 million for the growers, transporters, testers and dispensaries.   Let's assume the dispensaries are like many retail businesses and they sell their product for 40% more than their cost.   That backs down to 71.5 million to the transporters.   They take 10% and the labs take another 10%.  We are down to 59 million for the growers.  At the $4/gram price we have 520,000 ounces.    That backs down to $242/ounce retail.  Keep in mind that the per ounce price assumes that the avg buy of 1/8 applies.

Edited October 21, 2015 by semicaregiver

[trichcycler]

whoa ...so what you're saying is 50% of all medical cannabis users make up half of everyone who uses cannabis medically right ?

[outsideinthecold]

Been interested in the Michigan mj/mmj market for some time. Here's the admittedly rough estimates I've arrived at as a mean.

 

Ten million MI residents at the Samhsa estimate of 1.6 oz/capita annual average mj consumption would mean sixteen million ounces per year, or $2.4 billion market at $150/ounce or $5.25 per gram.

 

For comparison, an earlier post suggested a mmj specific market of 70,000 patients spending $1800/year is $126,000,000.

 

There are some serious discrepancies between these two estimates. Personally, I believe the market is much larger than most, including the Lansing Republicans acknowledge.

 

Of course, successful CG's have established and maintained their own distribution networks for quite some time, often in counties determined to punish all mj consumers, medical and recreational alike. It seems unlikely any roger am Lansing blesses will threaten the established CG system, legal or not.

 

Indeed, if past performance is any indicator, Lansing's efforts to build a taxable dispensary structure may inadvertently benefit CGs instead.

[bobandtorey]

They are looking for a way more effective than prohibition to keep people from growing, selling, and using marijuana? Are you saying locking up people for growing,selling,and using cannabis

 

 isn't working  out for the State because it's only costing the State $$ to lock people up  or is it that they can't lock up everyone all at once 

 

I agree the State has a big problem because the State did nothing in implementing the Law in the first place as some of us all know we did try 

 

Thanks

 

 

[semicaregiver]

The original subject of this thread relates to 4209 being considered by the Senate.

 

As 4209 is currently written, only card carrying mmj patients can shop in the dispensaries" that the bill will legalize.   There are at best 140,000 card carrying patients in Michigan.

 

There is no question that the recreational market is many, many times larger, but that 21 million enforcement package in 4209 is designed to specifically limit sales to only carded mmj patients.

 

We can speculate that the bill was really written to provide a framework for recreational.   If the proposed ballot initiatives actually happen, it will be early 2017 before that market actually happens.   Given that reality the issue at hand is what price a patient will pay when the total market is about 70,000 customers.

[semicaregiver]

The purpose of my post was to examine 4209 with regards to what patients might be paying.  At the same time I thought it would be useful to out that there is a glaring error in the bill with regards to the expectations that the excise tax will cover the enforcement costs.

 

The bill originally carried an 8% excise tax and glowingly suggests that the $ will be be going to various government agencies and entities, i.e. city/counties, etc after the costs of enforcing the marketplace rules.  Then they lowered the excise tax to 3%, but did not change the 21 million dollar enforcement costs.   

 

Given that the bill as written has a probable market of 70,000 customers who spend an average of $1800/yr on mmj they will need a 20% excise tax to pay that 21 million.  At the same time, those city and county agencies looking forward to getting their cut, get nothing.  

 

As patients and caregivers that grow our own, the 21 million enforcement cost should be a real concern.   Right now it seems that those using the dispensaries will bear the burden.   As it should be!   Up to now, we have contributed a significant windfall to LARA.   The same House review of 4209's fiscal costs noted that LARA is sitting on 26 million from the patient fees.  I do not know about anyone else, but I am thinking we non-dispensary users are going to get stuck with that 21 million dollar enforcement tab.

Edited October 21, 2015 by semicaregiver

[outsideinthecold]

The last estimate I read while serving on the County's CASA (Citizens Against Substance Abuse) Program where I was the only citizen, BTW (in a room otherwise filled with overweight public sector servants who apparently came for the free food they should have avoiding-fat calories being arguably the most abused substance in America) used the FDA's 2010 SAMHSA (Substance Abuse and Mental Health Administration) estimate of 13,5000 metric tons annually or 480,000,000 ounces.

 

Divide the Feds own estimate by 300,000,000 (the U.S. population and the result is 1.6 ounces for every man, woman, and child. Hardly fuzzy math.

[outsideinthecold]

Just googled the U.S. consumption again to double check. As I alluded to there were a wide range of estimates when I originally settled on the Samsha estimate. I never went much further as I had decided CASA was just another waste of money and skipped a meeting intending never to go back.

 

Sadly, for all concerned, I was elected Chairman in my absence and as chair was given access to the budget.

 

Here's how the program worked. The Feds collected $200,000 to provide a $100,000 grant to the County to fund CASA to create programs to fight teen substance abuse. The county spent $85,000 of the grant on staff salaries and the remaining $15,000 was spent on boondoggles, including $3000 for the newly elected chairman to attend a week long conference in D.C. and the remaining twelve grand to fund the two high paid county managers who were also slated to be rewarded boondogglers.

 

At the next board meeting I offered them a choice; forego the trips and put the money to work through the schools or accept my reservation.

 

Thus ended my career as a voluntary public servant.

Edited October 21, 2015 by outsideinthecold

[outsideinthecold]

And I readily admit my views are often skewed. Isn't everyones's?

 

For instance, I am saddened Joe Biden won't run for president. I would have voted for him and that is something I couldn't say at this time of any other candidate.

[t-pain]

I don't like Biden's stance on copyright laws

[+Malamute]

And I readily admit my views are often skewed. Isn't everyones's?

 

For instance, I am saddened Joe Biden won't run for president. I would have voted for him and that is something I couldn't say at this time of any other candidate.

 

I don't like Biden's stance on copyright laws

 

 

 Drug war and anti marijuana/? Anyone?  Reagans democratic  butt buddy on the war on drugs...

 

*shrug*

 

How soon we forget..

[+Malamute]

VP Joe Biden tells ABC, "There's a difference between sending (someone) to jail for a few ounces and legalizing it. The punishment should fit the crime. But I think legalization is a mistake. I still believe it's a gateway drug. I've spent a lot of my life as chairman of the Judiciary Committee dealing with this. I think it would be a mistake to legalize." Dec 24, 2010

 

 

In 1988, the major drug bill he had spent years crafting became law. Included was the creation of a national drug czar, a key Biden objective and a job that went to Republican William Bennett. Biden vowed to be Capital Hill's point man in pressing the new Bush administration on antidrug spending and helping Bennett navigate his way through a thorny bureaucratic thicket of multiple congressional jurisdictions. When Pres. Bush announced his 1989 antidrug plan, Biden showed no hesitation in criticizing him for not finding initiatives already on the books. He called for higher taxes on cigarettes and tobacco (neither of which he ever used) to pay for them. Biden unleashed his old fire: "Mr. President, you say you want a war on drugs, but if that's what you want we need another D-Day. Instead you're giving us another Vietnam--a limited war fought on the cheap, financed on the sly, with no clear objectives, and ultimately destined for stalemate and human tragedy."

 

 

 

From Judiciary, Biden responded to growing reports of police brutality on the one hand and inadequate law enforcement on the other in an era of heavy drug trafficking. Even before he became the Judiciary chairman, he had called for creation of a national drug czar to cope with the growing flood of narcotics into the American market. For years, Biden had been pushing for the creation of a drug czar, and when Ronald Reagan appointed William Bennett as his drug czar, Biden worked with him coordinating the various governmental agency budgets dealing with narcotics. And in a pending crime bill in 1990, Biden fought for tougher penalties for drug offenders, the bill was watered down by Republican opposition.

 

Fighting Drugs: Joe Biden has worked to increase penalties for dealing drugs within 1,000 feet of schools, created the Drug Czar office in the White House, and was an important voice in classifying steroids as drugs and has worked to keep them out of the hands of students.

The Biden Crime Law: Joe Biden wrote the legislation that put 100,000 cops on the streets, and built drug courts to improve rehabilitation treatment for non-violent offenders.

 

 

Biden has sponsored more damaging drug war legislation than any Democrat in Congress. Hate the way federal prosecutors use RICO laws to take aim at drug offenders? Thank Biden. How about the abomination that is federal asset forfeiture laws? Thank Biden. Think federal prosecutors have too much power in drug cases? Thank Biden. Think the title of a “Drug Czar” is sanctimonious and silly? Thank Biden, who helped create the position (and still considers it an accomplishment worth boasting about). Tired of the ridiculous steroids hearings in Congress? thank Biden, who led the effort to make steroids a Schedule 3 drug, and has been among the blowhardiest of the blowhards when it comes to sports and performance enhancing drugs. Biden voted in favor of using international development aid for drug control (think plan Columbia, plan Afghanistan, and other meddling anti-drug efforts that have only fostered loathing of America, backlash, and unintended consequences). Oh, and he was also the chief sponsor of 2004’s horrendous RAVE Act.